Where are they this year?

OUR POINT OF VIEW ON

ANALYSIS  from  PREDICTIONS  NETWORK  BECASSE  ONCFS

2017/2018 SEASON

Average Abundance Prediction - ICA  : 1.63 - Mediocre reproduction.

Proportion of juveniles captured in central Russia in September / October  ; lowest value ever recorded since the early 2000s.

If we take the Oncfs predictions literally, especially the proportion of juveniles (65% minus 12 points than the average), we can expect

to a 2017 reproduction even worse than the years of severe drought,  2002/2003 and 2010/2011 where the Age / Ratio were the lowest  !

2002/2003  , Age / Ratio Hunting  : 57.8 - Age / Banding Ratio: 51.0 - ICA Cnb: 1.08

2010/2011, - -  : 57.5 - - -  : 50.7 - ICA Cnb  : 1.49

In this case we could record for the 2017/2018 season an Age / Hunting and Banding Ratio below these values. This would be a very worrying indicator for the species.

We hope that our observations which conclude with a reproduction 2017 Fair close to 2016 are good  ; because our concerns about the downward trend in the European breeding population are very real.

However, some may point out that with an ICA of 1.62 (2014/2015 season) the Age / Hunting Ratio finished at 63 and the Age / Banding Ratio at 51.6 (difference of more than 11 points between the two never explained. ), with a season deemed Good by the Cnb. However, with an ICA forecast at 1.63 by the Oncfs, we could have the same results for the 2017/2018 season.

On the other hand, even when taking them with caution, the news from transit countries, as well as those from hunting tourism are not good. There would be a significant lack of birds.

The European Migratory workforce could therefore be particularly low this season. If this is the case, reproduction should not be made to bear only the weight of a sharp drop in Migratory numbers, but consider that the decline in reproductive numbers is also the cause.

In anticipation, all responsible Woodcock hunters must now reduce their harvest. We have not yet clearly heard such recommendations from the hunting world.

If at the end of the Autumn migration (20.12) we notice a significant drop in frequentation in France, the hunting authorities will have to take drastic measures to reduce withdrawals at the national level on January 1, 2018. If the Age ratio is low at the end of the season, this  will involve a second element to make decisions commensurate with the situation. For this it is desirable that all stakeholders in the world of Woodcock and its sport hunting speak with one voice, so that their proposals (going in this direction) are heard. But ... it's another catch of Bec  !

Philippe Vignac, Franck Ricaud.

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November 2017

Sources  : National Club of Bécassiers (Hunting Abundance Index, Age / Hunting Ratio, Quality of the season).

Woodcock Network Oncfs (Letter on the abundance prediction for the 2017/2018 season  ; Age / Ratio Ba guage).

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