Since 2011, ten years, we have observed the weather conditions during the reproduction of the Woodcock.

This anteriority allows us to get closer to reality.

We have modeled the climatic conditions of the last ten years, the Age / Ratio for France as well as the frequentation in the large wintering countries.

This allows us to compare them with 2020, in order to refine our probabilities on the quality of reproduction, the size of the migratory population and the impact on the number of visitors in France for the 2020/2021 hunting season.

However, he will always remain a little unknown. How did the breeding stock and then the young react to the observed climatic conditions?  ? There can always be surprises.

Our observations of weather conditions concern the major breeding countries  : Russia, Fennoscandinavia, Baltic States, Central Europe.

That is to say 11 countries, 40 regions, 41 sites or to our knowledge, 116 Woodcock equipped with Argos beacons have gone to reproduce since 2012.

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Estimate of the breeding population 2020.

For the 2019/2020 season, with a very mild winter everywhere in Europe, the information we received for the four major wintering countries, France, Italy, Greece, Spain, show very good attendance in many sectors, but normal to low over all of the others.

Wherever attendance has been very good, withdrawals would have been high, with percentages of young records.

On the other hand, the number of survivors at the end of the hunting season seems to have remained just stable compared to the previous season, which would mean that we would have taken all of the interest produced by the species. These interests, the result of a very good reproduction in 2019, were nevertheless substantial  !

We will not know for 2020, the level of attendance of the crumbling in Russia. Few observations due to covid 19, but good news.

According to correspondents, the hunting of the croule has been banned. Even more or less well respected, it is preserved Woodcock (around 200,000).

Weather conditions during the Critical Period May 15 - July 15.

This year we have focused our observations even more on this period. Over the years, it has proven to be decisive for the survival and size of the number of young people able to migrate.

A later start to reproduction than the average would have delayed the critical period by ten days.

We know from experience that this is not a positive observation.

Russia.

Russia is home to around 70% of the European breeding population (including 8% in Western Siberia).

From May 15 to June 5, temperatures remained very cool, especially at night and in the morning, at all of the sites observed. Despite the regular rainfalls, the humidity seemed heterogeneous, with on some sites air humidity levels and especially lower than normal soils.

It was not until June 15 that the temperatures rose, but without excessive heat. Soil moisture remained heterogeneous. No violent phenomena. Weak to moderate winds.

Given the conditions observed, it is probable that the survival of the young was impacted. It is possible that part of the Center, West, and all of the South-West had better breeding than the North-West, North, Central-East, Urals and West Siberia.

We rate breeding in Russia as Fair to Fair plus.

Fennoscandinavia, Denmark included.

Finland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark are home to around 15% of the European breeding population.

The climatic conditions observed during the critical period suggest a frankly fair reproduction.

Baltic States and Belarus.

Estonia, Lithuania and Belarus are home to around 10% of the European breeding population.

Slightly better weather conditions in these countries, which allow us to judge the reproduction, Fair more.

Central Europe.

For Poland which shelters around 5% of breeders and Germany few, the weather conditions observed would give a reproduction, Fair.

In summary, the conditions observed during the critical period in the large breeding countries suggest that the young will have suffered from the cold, humidity and lack of sunlight. Their death rate is expected to be higher than average.

Weather conditions during the secondary period July 15 - August 31.

The weather during the secondary period certainly did not interfere with the continuation of the rearing of the young and their survival.

No excessive temperatures, but a slight deficit of rain which did not significantly affect soil moisture levels.

No violent or dangerous climatic phenomena for the species.

The three English Bécargos which still transmit, have not moved from their breeding sites, showing that the conditions encountered were suitable for them.

For information. Respectively two, three and four years that they wear their Argos beacon.

All of our observations suggest that the secondary period will confirm the quality of reproduction observed at the end of the critical period. In view of the weather conditions forecast in September, if they are verified, the moult and the constitution of reserves for the post-nuptial migration, should go correctly for the Woodcock. This is a good thing for the squad of late youngsters, which should be bigger this year.

Probabilities for the 2020/2021 season.

Fair to Fair reproduction means that there will be fewer young. In any case, much less than last season.

For adults, the number should remain stable or even slightly increase, if there has been a significant number of Woodcock preserved in crumbling in Russia. We will be able to see it a posteriori, if the sex / ratio is on the rise. (It would take more than 90% of males at the bottom).

Under these conditions the post-nuptial European migratory number could be below, or just in the average of the last decade.

Regarding attendance in France.

In migration, given the drought this year over two-thirds of the country, which adds to the trend of the last, we could have.

1 ° In migration. Concentrations * of Woodcock, especially of young people, on certain coastal departments of the western facade, as well as in the middle mountains. Fewer birds elsewhere because of the lack of young.

2 ° For wintering. It will all depend on the frequency and amount of rain that will fall from October, then in November and where it will fall.

These observations could be valid with our Italian and Greek friends.

There remain the surprises that the Woodcock can reserve for us in certain seasons. It's happy, so that I can still dream. Have a nice season everyone.

Take without Impoverishing.

* The effects of severe droughts are the same as those of cold spells with prolonged frost. With the difference that the concentrations do not necessarily occur at the same places and at the same times. Both are dangerous for the species.

September 04, 2020

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